Recent numbers are now in, with good news to share. With some financial analysts describing a “gravity-defying” “monster rally” across major market indices, most disciplined investors have been richly rewarded for sticking with their appropriate investment allocations.
Even had quarterly and year-to-date numbers not shown improvement, we would have advised you to remain invested as planned anyway. The same can be said for whatever the rest of the year has in store. We know markets deliver positive returns over time, but we never know what they will do from one quarter to the next.
So, let’s celebrate the current upturn! While we’re at it, let’s keep some of today’s positive energy, for the next time you find yourself questioning your resolve (you’re human after all). Remember, despite the folly of short-term forecasting, the 24×7 newsfeeds are forever planting fresh seeds of doubt in our fertile minds.
The quarter just ended was no exception to this rule. We entered it in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and the threats posed to our larger banking system. These events were soon followed by political brinksmanship over U.S. government debt. Then there were the wider, geopolitical concerns of the day, with ample news coverage stoking a bonfire of “what if?” anxieties at every turn.
It’s human nature to feel real alarm over real financial threats as they play out. Any of them can generate very different quarter-end numbers. We were grateful they did not.
But that doesn’t mean we should abandon our long-term focus in reaction to near-term news. An evidence-based investor is wise to expect global human enterprise to generate satisfying market returns over time, even as we fortify ourselves for those fewer times when it does not. As Fortunes & Frictions author Rubin Miller, CFA describes in “How Returns Happen”:
“…if we don’t know which days will be good and which days will be bad, and the stock market goes up over time, the recipe for success is obvious.”
Just as Miller suggests, we believe investors are best served by building sound portfolios, sticking with them through hot and cold quarters, and waiting for the returns to come in “Field of Dreams” fashion, even when they’re not imminently in sight.
Today, we understand why a whole portfolio can generate more manageable outcomes than its parts. It’s why we build investment portfolios out of various sources of expected returns, rather than trying to pick only the next big winners or dodge current losers; why we turn to diversification instead of market-timing to manage investment risks.
Disclosure: The opinions expressed herein are those of SYM Financial Corporation (“SYM”) and are subject to change without notice. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. SYM reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be used as a substitute for the advice of a professional legal or tax advisor. Information was obtained from third party sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness. SYM is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about SYM including our investment strategies, fees, and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.